Introduction BitMorpho Daily News & Fundamentals: December 29, 2025 Good morning, and welcome to your Monday market briefing as we close the final chapters of 2025. The cryptocurrency market, particularly for Bitcoin, is showing signs of consolidation and structural shifts, even as geopolitical tensions flare, creating a complex backdrop for digital assets. Today, Bitcoin is demonstrating notable resilience, climbing back toward the 89,000 mark after oscillating near the 87,000 support level following a large options expiry late last week. This move suggests a stabilization as institutional traders reportedly conclude tax-loss harvesting and position for the 2026 fiscal year. On-chain data paints a nuanced picture: while short-term holders are realizing significant losses, with daily realized losses hitting approximately $300 million, the market structure remains historically robust, approaching a record stretch of "seller silence." Encouragingly, Long-Term Holders (LTHs) have resumed accumulation, turning the "Hodler Net Position Change" metric positive for the first time in months, signaling renewed conviction at current prices. On the macro front, geopolitical risks are elevated: China has launched live-fire "Justice Mission 2025" drills surrounding Taiwan, deploying significant military assets in response to recent US arms sales to the island. While Taiwan's stock market remained steady, this escalation keeps a major supply chain flashpoint active, adding a layer of risk premium to global markets. This environment has also seen a competitive surge in traditional hedges, with silver hitting record valuations and even overtaking major technology firms at one point, reinforcing the institutional preference for non-fiat hedges. Against this backdrop, the lingering sentiment from the Federal Reserve’s December rate cut continues to filter through, with markets now grappling with policy divisions and awaiting clearer guidance for the new year. Today, we focus on whether BTC's internal accumulation signals can overcome broader geopolitical uncertainty and the gravitational pull of traditional safe havens. News Analysis Good morning, and welcome to your BitMorpho Daily News & Fundamentals report for Monday, December 29, 2025. As the market winds down the final trading days of the year, Bitcoin is showing a decisive move away from recent lows, fueled by internal conviction signals that are beginning to outweigh macro uncertainty. Bitcoin Price Action and Market Resilience Bitcoin has successfully reclaimed the 89,000 territory, exhibiting notable resilience after testing the 87,000 support level following last week's options expiry. This upward momentum has pushed the price above $90,000 in Asian trading, hinting at a potential breakout after missing the broader "Santa Claus Rally" seen in traditional equity markets. Despite this strength, Bitcoin faces a significant technical hurdle: it needs a rally of at least 6.24% in the remaining days to close 2025 in positive territory, avoiding what would be the first down year in a post-halving cycle. While some analysts remain cautious, noting the market lacks the "blind faith" of peak speculation, the recent uptick appears to be driven by growing demand for bullish bets in the perpetual futures market, as indicated by the rising funding rate. On-Chain Dynamics: The Return of the Hodler The most compelling narrative of the day is emerging from on-chain metrics, which strongly suggest a shift in long-term capital behavior. While the broader market saw short-term holders realizing approximately $300 million in daily losses, the conviction of long-term holders (LTHs) appears to be strengthening considerably. The "Hodler Net Position Change" metric has turned positive for the first time in months, confirming that LTHs have resumed active accumulation [cite: Context]. This contrasts with earlier data from early December, which showed large holders ("whales and sharks") beginning to accumulate again after a two-month selloff phase, buying back over 47,000 BTC. This accumulation at current prices signals renewed confidence from the segment of the market that weathered the post-October downturn. Furthermore, the market structure is characterized by a historical stretch of "seller silence," reinforcing the idea that significant supply is being moved off the market by patient investors [cite: Context]. Regulatory Landscape: A Foundation for 2026 While geopolitical news dominated headlines, the slow but steady march of global crypto regulation continues to lay groundwork for institutional engagement in 2026. In the US, improved regulatory clarity throughout 2025, including progress on acts like the GENIUS Act for stablecoins and CFTC/SEC framework realignments, has been a major factor supporting long-term optimism, even amid this year's price slump. On the international front, the EU’s Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation (MiCAR) is starting to show results, with a major bank subsidiary reportedly completing its first blockchain-based "Smart Derivatives Contract" under the new framework, signaling a significant shift for traditional finance derivatives onto the chain. This regulatory maturity stands in contrast to the ongoing geopolitical friction. Geopolitical Headwinds and Safe-Haven Rotation The market is operating under the shadow of heightened geopolitical risk, with China launching "Justice Mission 2025" live-fire drills around Taiwan [cite: Context, 24]. While past similar events have shown limited *direct* impact on BTC price action unless escalation occurs, the drills reinforce a risk premium in Asia and keep supply chains particularly semiconductors in focus. This uncertainty appears to be contributing to the performance of traditional hedges. The continued surge in assets like silver to record valuations signals that institutional capital is actively seeking non-fiat safe havens, underscoring a divergence where precious metals are accelerating while risk assets like BTC consolidate [cite: Context, 7, 12]. Ecosystem & Sentiment Check In terms of ecosystem developments, major Layer-1 networks are seeing continued building, with Bitcoin L2s experiencing a surge in development as builders race to leverage BTC as a base asset. Meanwhile, Ethereum-based firms are also seeing institutional moves, with one treasury firm staking $219 million worth of ETH. On the sentiment side, institutional capital flows via ETFs have seen a recent six-day streak of outflows, suggesting thinner holiday liquidity is still impacting short-term positioning, though analysts expect this to normalize in January. Overall, the sentiment remains bifurcated: caution persists due to macro uncertainty and recent price action, but LTH accumulation points to strong foundational support heading into the new year. Outlook Conclusion: Year-End Resilience Fueled by Accumulation Conviction As we conclude our daily review for Monday, December 29, 2025, the overarching sentiment for Bitcoin is one of cautious optimism, bolstered significantly by on-chain evidence. Bitcoin has demonstrated commendable resilience, successfully pushing back above the 89,000 mark and briefly touching 90,000 in Asian trading, shrugging off previous support tests. The fundamental takeaway rests squarely on the shoulders of long-term holders (LTHs). The "Hodler Net Position Change" metric turning positive for the first time in months is a powerful signal, indicating that seasoned capital is actively resuming accumulation despite short-term holder losses. This renewed conviction from LTHs, mirroring earlier whale accumulation trends, suggests underlying demand is strengthening and may be beginning to counteract the narrative of macro uncertainty and the required year-end gains to secure a positive annual close. For the next 24 to 48 hours, investors must monitor two key areas: sustainability above the psychological $90,000 level and the continued upward trajectory of the perpetual futures funding rate, which validates the increased bullish sentiment in the derivatives market. If accumulation continues at this pace, the door remains open for a strong finish to the year. *Disclaimer: This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own thorough research before making investment decisions.*