Introduction Good morning, and welcome to today's technical analysis for Ripple’s XRP, as of Friday, December 19, 2025. The market sentiment surrounding XRP today is predominantly cautious, leaning towards bearish in the immediate short term, largely influenced by broader macroeconomic factors and recent price action. XRP has recently experienced significant selling pressure, falling below the critical psychological and technical support level of 2.00, which had previously held since November 2024. Furthermore, XRP is currently trading around the 2.14 mark, but is nearing a crucial point just under a descending resistance line near $2.22. Technically, the asset is displaying concerning formations; several analysts point to the formation of a descending triangle pattern, which often signals potential for further declines if underlying market conditions remain weak. Momentum indicators, including the Relative Strength Index (RSI), are reported to be dropping, although not yet in oversold territory, suggesting room for further downside. The long/short ratio hovering around 1 also indicates that bearish sentiment prevails among active traders. Compounding this technical weakness are external pressures, notably market jitters surrounding the Bank of Japan's expected interest rate hike today, which introduces risks related to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and impacts on global dollar liquidity. While some analysts suggest key support levels around 1.75 to 1.64 could act as a final shakeout zone before a potential reversal, the current breach of the $2.00 support has invalidated several prior bullish structures, such as the breakdown from a long-term ascending channel. Our analysis will now delve into these key support/resistance zones, volume profiles, and prevailing market structure to gauge the probability of a short-term recovery or continued downward momentum. As always, this analysis is purely technical and should not be construed as financial advice. Technical Analysis This technical analysis will dissect the current market structure and indicator readings for XRP as of Friday, December 19, 2025, building upon the established context of bearish short-term sentiment following the breach of the critical 2.00 support. Price Action Analysis: Support and Resistance The immediate breach below the psychological 2.00 mark invalidates prior bullish consolidation, shifting the near-term bias firmly to the downside. Based on the prevailing bearish momentum, the primary support structure to monitor is the cluster identified by analysts between 1.75 and 1.64. This zone represents a potential "shakeout" area where a significant influx of buy-side liquidity may attempt to halt the descent before a sustained reversal. On the upside, the immediate resistance lies at the breakdown point of the recently lost 2.00 level. More significantly, the descending trendline resistance, currently situated near 2.22, must be overcome decisively with strong volume to negate the current downward bias. The observed pivot points offer granular reference: Classic Support 1 (S1) stands at 1.7788, with Fibonacci support at $1.7838, closely aligning with the broader support zone. Indicator Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI): Data from mid-day suggests the RSI(14) is registering around 29.44. This reading pushes XRP into the oversold territory (typically below 30), signaling that selling pressure may be nearing exhaustion, though it can remain oversold during protracted downtrends. Given the context of the descending triangle, while oversold, a relief rally is not guaranteed without a momentum shift confirmed elsewhere. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA): The moving average landscape is decidedly bearish. Data indicates a "Strong Sell" across the board for both Simple and Exponential Moving Averages. Specifically, the 50-day SMA (1.8765) is below the 200-day SMA (1.9619), confirming a significant long-term "death cross" signal, indicative of sustained weakness. The current price (2.14, contextually) is trading well below key short-term MAs like the MA5 (1.8021 SMA) and MA10 ($1.8242 SMA), suggesting that any immediate bounce will face heavy resistance from these rapidly descending averages. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): The MACD(12,26) reading is reported at -0.026, signaling bearish momentum. This negative divergence confirms the selling pressure identified by the moving averages and suggests the downside trend has structural strength, as the shorter-term average remains significantly below the longer-term average. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic oscillator (STOCH(9,6)) reading of 19.154 further confirms the oversold condition suggested by the RSI. This level, being significantly below the 20 mark, is a stronger indication of potential short-term reversal potential compared to the RSI, although caution is warranted due to the overarching bearish pattern. Bollinger Bands (BB): While specific current band values are unavailable, the context of the descending triangle suggests that the price action is likely hugging or trading outside the lower band, indicative of high volatility on the downside and strong selling dominance. A break back inside the bands would be the first technical sign of momentum easing. Volume Profile: The general market sentiment (Long/Short ratio near 1 and overall indicator consensus) suggests that selling volume is currently dominating directional moves. The continuation of the descending triangle pattern relies on selling volume confirming downward breaks, while any meaningful bounce would require a substantial, volume-backed breakout above resistance, ideally breaking the 2.22 barrier. Ichimoku Cloud: While the specific values for the Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, and cloud structure are not directly retrieved, the overwhelming bearish bias from other indicators strongly implies that XRP is trading below the Ichimoku Cloud (Kumo), with the Tenkan-sen below the Kijun-sen, and the Chikou Span lagging price action, all classic bearish signals confirming trend weakness and resistance zones within the cloud structure. Fibonacci Retracement: The failure to hold the 2.00 level implies that the price has likely broken below key Fibonacci retracement levels drawn from the last significant upward swing. The next critical Fibonacci support level to watch will be the 61.8% retracement of the preceding move, which often aligns near the lower support targets of 1.64 to 1.75. Chart Pattern Synopsis The most concerning formation is the Descending Triangle. This pattern, defined by a flat support base (now likely broken or severely tested) and a lower, descending resistance trendline, typically resolves to the downside, often by a magnitude equal to the triangle’s widest vertical distance at the point of breakdown. The prior invalidation of the ascending channel breakdown is a strong confirmation of bearish control. In summary, the technical confluence points toward continued downside risk. While indicators like the RSI and Stochastic signal oversold conditions, these are being overridden by the structural weakness shown by the Moving Averages (Death Cross) and the bearish MACD. A confirmed reversal will require XRP to reclaim the 2.00 level with significant volume, invalidating the descending triangle pattern. Until then, the technical bias remains bearish, targeting the 1.75 - 1.64$ support matrix. Conclusion CONCLUSION The technical landscape for XRP is currently dominated by a decidedly bearish near-term bias following the decisive breach below the critical 2.00 support level. Price action is testing the immediate support cluster between 1.75 and 1.64, a key area where any significant buying interest must materialize to prevent further downside exploration. Overhead, the 2.00 level has flipped to immediate resistance, with the major hurdle for any bullish recovery being the descending trendline resistance near $2.22. Indicator readings reinforce the negative posture; the moving averages have converged into a "Strong Sell" signal, with the 50-day SMA sitting below the 200-day SMA, confirming a long-term bearish alignment. Conversely, the RSI(14) at approximately 29.44 signals oversold conditions, suggesting that the selling momentum may be mature. Summary of Scenarios: * Bearish Scenario: A failure to hold the 1.75-1.64 support zone will likely trigger a cascade toward lower Fibonacci extensions. * Bullish Scenario: A bounce from the primary support, confirmed by a bullish divergence on the RSI and a strong, high-volume close above 2.00, could signal a near-term bottom and trend reversal attempt. Final Technical Verdict: Based on the prevailing bearish momentum confirmed by the Moving Averages and the invalidated bullish structure, the technical bias remains bearish until price action can reclaim the 2.00 psychological level with conviction. *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.*