Introduction Technical Analysis: XRP - Navigating Macro Headwinds and Structural Undercurrents Date: Thursday, December 18, 2025 Welcome to the BitMorpho technical assessment of the XRP market. As we approach the end of the calendar year, the cryptocurrency landscape is characterized by a cautious sentiment, largely dictated by broader macroeconomic factors that are currently outweighing individual project catalysts. Today, XRP is reflecting this prevailing risk-off mood, having experienced a recent slump. Specific market anxiety has been sparked by fears surrounding the unwinding of the yen carry trade following a surge in 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB) yields, which has triggered a broader sell-off across certain risk assets, including crypto. On a technical level, XRP is currently trading under pressure, with recent price action showing weakness below key psychological and technical support thresholds, such as the 2.00 level, which is now viewed as significant resistance. Technical analysts are closely monitoring downside targets, with potential support zones identified near 1.90 and $1.88, while bearish chart formations, such as a potential double-top on the weekly chart, suggest that a failure to hold critical support could expose lower price targets. This near-term bearish inclination is further supported by technical indicators showing weakening momentum. However, it is crucial to maintain an objective, two-sided view. While short-term technicals appear fragile due to macro-driven selling, the underlying structural narrative for XRP remains constructive for the medium to long term. Positive developments, including robust spot ETF inflows and progress on regulatory frameworks like the Market Structure Bill, provide foundational support that contrasts with the immediate price dip. The interplay between these external macro pressures compressing price and the persistent institutional/utility tailwinds creates a complex trading environment, demanding disciplined analysis of key support integrity over the coming sessions. This report will dissect the relevant charts, volume shifts, and sentiment indicators to map potential high-probability pathways. *Please note: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice.* Technical Analysis This analysis focuses on the technical structure of XRP as of Thursday, December 18, 2025, integrating recent price action with quantitative indicator readings to map potential trajectories amid prevailing macro-driven selling pressure. Price Action Analysis: Key Structural Levels The recent price action confirms the heightened bearish pressure mentioned in the introduction. The failure to maintain the crucial 2.00 psychological and technical support level has been a significant development. This level is now firmly established as the immediate major resistance. Current price discovery is pushing toward the identified downside targets, testing the 1.90 and 1.88 zones. A decisive breach below 1.88 would invalidate the near-term consolidation thesis and likely target the next significant structural support zone, potentially near the 1.84 Fibonacci support cluster. Conversely, a recovery above 1.90 requires a strong influx of buying volume to re-establish footing above $2.00. Technical Indicator Deep Dive The current readings across the chosen indicators overwhelmingly reflect the short-term bearish sentiment: Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-period RSI stands near 38.679. This places XRP firmly in the lower half of its normal trading range, approaching but not yet confirming deep oversold territory (typically below 30). While it signals weakening momentum, it also suggests there is still room for further downside before a strong mean-reversion signal is generated by this oscillator alone. MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): The MACD level is reported at -0.014, indicating that the short-term moving average has decisively crossed below the long-term average, confirming a bearish crossover and negative momentum accumulation. This divergence suggests the selling pressure is gaining ground across short-to-medium timeframes. Moving Averages (EMA/SMA): The composite Moving Average readings present a uniform "Strong Sell" signal, with all major Simple and Exponential Moving Averages (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50, MA100, MA200) indicating a bearish orientation. For example, the current price is trading well below the 200-day SMA (approx. $1.9875 for SMA200), confirming a dominant downtrend on the daily chart. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic (9,6) reading is 21.604, while the Stochastic RSI (14) is registering deep into oversold conditions at approximately 13.344. The main Stochastic being low, but not critically oversold, suggests caution, though the deeper oversold reading on the StochRSI hints that the sell-off may be approaching an exhaustion point for short-term capitulation. Bollinger Bands: Given the sharp decline, the price is likely trading near or aggressively breaking the lower Bollinger Band on shorter timeframes. This technical structure implies increased volatility and suggests the current price is trading at an *extreme* relative to its recent 20-period average, often preceding a mean-reversion attempt, though macro drivers can extend these extremes. Volume: While the context implies significant macro-driven selling volume has underpinned the recent slump, specific day-over-day volume metrics are not explicitly provided here. Generally, the current bearish move must be confirmed by *high* selling volume to suggest conviction, whereas a potential bottoming attempt would require a divergence a price drop on *decreasing* volume. Ichimoku Cloud: Although specific Tenkan-sen, Kijun-sen, and Senkou Span values are not precisely detailed in the search results, the overall "Strong Sell" summary across indicators suggests that XRP is likely trading below the daily Ichimoku Cloud, with the current price below the Kijun-sen (Base Line), confirming robust bearish control. Fibonacci Analysis: The identified near-term support at 1.88 aligns closely with the 0.382 or 0.50 Fibonacci retracement from a recent significant swing low, making it a critical confluence zone derived from both structure and Fibonacci extensions/retracements. Further downside pivots suggest the 1.8375 (S3 Classic Pivot) and $1.8458 (S2 Fibonacci Pivot) levels offer the next line of defense. Chart Patterns The context explicitly highlights the potential for a double-top formation on the weekly chart. If the recent peak near 2.00 represents the second top, a breakdown below the neckline (which is now the support being tested around 1.88) would project a significant bearish price target, potentially below the $1.80 mark, aligning with the extension of the current downside momentum. Conclusion Conclusion The technical posture for XRP as of December 18, 2025, is predominantly bearish based on the confluence of recent price action and indicator readings. The decisive failure to hold the key $2.00 psychological support level has transformed this into immediate major resistance, signaling a shift in market control toward sellers. The bearish scenario is validated by the short-term indicators: the RSI sits near 38.679, suggesting weakening momentum with room for further decline before oversold conditions are met, while the MACD's negative reading and bearish crossover (-0.014) confirm accumulating negative momentum across key timeframes. The immediate downside targets are the 1.90 and 1.88 zones, with a decisive break below the latter potentially opening the door for a test of the $1.84 Fibonacci support cluster. Conversely, the bullish scenario remains contingent on an immediate and powerful volume-backed rejection of the current downside targets, which would first require establishing a base above 1.90 and then aggressively reclaiming the 2.00 resistance level. Final Technical Verdict: Bearish Bias. Until XRP can decisively reclaim and hold above the $2.00 mark, the path of least resistance appears downward, dictated by the prevailing bearish momentum confirmed across momentum and trend indicators. *** *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and technical discussion purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.*