In the ever-turbulent world of cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin remains the undisputed king. On October 28, 2025, glancing at the BTCUSD chart, we see the price fluctuating around $113,942. This figure, drawn from the latest close, hints at a modest pullback from recent highs. But is this just a brief breather before the next surge? Let's dig deeper into the technical, fundamental, and on-chain narratives. Starting with the daily data, today's candle opened at $114,117 in GMT timezone, peaked at $114,494, and dipped to a low of $113,887. Trading volume is impressive, exceeding 56 billion dollars moved, underscoring strong market interest. This retreat from the $115,800 level a key resistance might signal buyer fatigue, but a closer look suggests it could be a healthy retest of a recently broken resistance turned support. Holding above this zone is crucial for the bulls to prevent the formation of a bearish double-top pattern. Now, onto support and resistance levels, the bedrock of any technical analysis. The first critical support sits at $109,700, bolstered by the 200-day moving average (DMA). This level is a major pivot point; a strong bounce here would confirm bullish momentum. The next vital support is at $104,400, recently tested and held firmly, establishing a solid price floor. Resistances, however, are more formidable. The $116,000 mark acts like a brick wall, and a decisive, high-volume break above it could unlock doors to $120,000 and beyond. Many analysts, observing the recent inverse head-and-shoulders pattern, believe a breakout is highly probable, with a measured target reaching $125,000. The psychological $120,000 level also holds significant sell liquidity. Indicators have intriguing tales too. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 54, indicating neither an overbought nor an oversold condition. This neutral stance leaves room for movement in either direction, but given the preceding uptrend, upside continuation is the higher probability. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is fascinating; the signal line has crossed above the MACD line, a classic bullish crossover that indicates growing positive momentum. Bollinger Bands are squeezing, a common precursor to volatility spikes and significant price moves. Critically, the 50 and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs) maintain their golden cross formation, a powerful long-term bullish signal. Furthermore, the Stochastic oscillator is exiting oversold territory, flashing clear buy signals, which reinforces the potential for an immediate rebound. On higher timeframes, the weekly chart reveals a well-established ascending channel, with the price currently positioned in the upper half. A bullish flag pattern has been clearly forming since early October, technically targeting the $125,000 region. Volume is gradually rising, which provides necessary confirmation of the trend's strength. While the overall picture is bullish, prudent risk management is essential. Risks like flash crashes, often triggered by unexpected news or mass liquidations, are always lurking, especially for those employing high leverage. Fibonacci analysis adds critical value. From the recent swing low of $103,360 to the high of $114,500, the 61.8% retracement level at $110,500 provided solid support during the latest dip. Maintaining price action above the $112,000 mark keeps the higher targets comfortably in play. Deeper Dive into Macroeconomics and On-Chain Data: To construct a complete view, we must look beyond the charts to the fundamental drivers. Monetary policy from the US Federal Reserve remains a dominant factor. Historically, aggressive interest rate hikes have been detrimental to risk-on assets like Bitcoin. However, the market is increasingly showing signs of decoupling, suggesting that institutional adoption is mitigating the severity of the Fed's impact. Key data points like the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) must be closely monitored; any indications of a pause or a pivot in rate hikes would be massively bullish for Bitcoin. Furthermore, the Bitcoin Halving cycle cannot be overstated. Each historical halving event has been followed by a major bull market. We are currently in the pre-Halving accumulation phase, a period often characterized by strong volatility and sideways price action before the eventual parabolic move. This well-documented historical pattern provides a strong psychological and fundamental support floor for the price. On the On-Chain front, key indicators confirm the accumulation narrative. Bitcoin reserves on exchanges continue to decline, meaning investors are moving their tokens to cold storage for long-term holding. This shrinking exchange supply, juxtaposed with rising demand, is a setup for a potential supply shock and price explosion. Additionally, 'HODL Waves' show that the proportion of investors holding Bitcoin for over a year is increasing, signifying deep conviction in higher future prices. Bearish Scenario and Risk Management: Despite the prevailing bullish sentiment, professional traders must be prepared for a downside scenario. A failure to hold the key supports at $109,700 and $104,400 would activate a strong bearish move. If the price falls decisively below $104,400 and fails to recover quickly, we could see a return to the major psychological support at $100,000. The $100,000 level is not just psychologically important but also represents a historical accumulation zone. A break below this level could activate a 'Death Cross' (where the 50-day EMA crosses below the 200-day EMA), confirming a mid-term bearish trend and signaling a deep correction. In terms of risk management, using high leverage is strongly discouraged in this volatile environment. Traders must employ a strict 'Stop-Loss' order, typically placed just below a key support level. For instance, a long position entered near the current price might place a stop-loss just below $109,000 to limit risk exposure. The golden rule is to risk no more than 1-2% of total capital on any single trade. In summary, while the short-term path may be choppy, the overall market structure and fundamental drivers, such as the Halving and decreasing exchange supply, paint a strongly bullish long-term picture. The current volatility, largely driven by macroeconomic uncertainties, should be viewed more as an accumulation opportunity for investors with a longer time horizon than as an immediate threat. Patience and disciplined, emotion-free decision-making are paramount. Bitcoin is solidifying its position as a global store of value, and the continued influx of institutional capital is vital for conquering the next major resistance levels, making the combination of technical, fundamental, and on-chain analysis our best roadmap for the weeks ahead.