Introduction As of Thursday, December 11, 2025, the cryptocurrency market is exhibiting a pronounced risk-off posture following the Federal Reserve's recent policy announcement. Bitcoin (BTC) is currently trading around the 89,754 mark, representing a 2.45% decrease since the previous trading session, following a brief rally after the expected 25-basis-point rate cut. This pullback suggests a classic "sell-the-news" reaction, compounded by a cautious tone from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding inflation and employment risks, which dampened enthusiasm for an aggressive easing cycle. The broader market sentiment has noticeably soured, with the total crypto market cap edging down to approximately 3.1 trillion and market sentiment metrics holding in the "fear" range. Adding to the pressure is the increased correlation with the traditional tech sector; a significant drop in Oracle shares following earnings reports has dragged down technology-linked assets, including Bitcoin. Technical indicators point to potential downside continuation, with some analyses noting a bearish rising wedge breakdown projecting lower targets. However, on-chain data presents a contrasting narrative, as significant declines in Bitcoin reserves on exchanges suggest long-term holders are accumulating or moving assets to cold storage, indicating underlying structural strength despite short-term volatility and thin liquidity. Derivatives markets also show skepticism regarding a sustained move above key psychological levels like 100,000. This analysis will dissect the current price action, volume profiles, and market structure to ascertain the most probable near-term trajectories for BTC under these complex, macro-sensitive conditions. Technical Analysis Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) at 89,754 The current trading range for Bitcoin, hovering around 89,754 following a macro-driven sell-off, necessitates a granular technical assessment to validate the risk-off sentiment. Price action reveals immediate challenges, with the psychological 90,000 level decisively breached to the downside. Primary support appears to be established near the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level, which often correlates with the 89,749.6 Classic Pivot Point value found during the previous 24-hour session. A failure to hold this cluster risks a deeper correction towards the next significant area of confluence, loosely pegged near the 88,500 region, which aligns with potential deeper Fibonacci support levels. Resistance is now firmly set at the broken 90,000 mark, with the next meaningful objective being the high printed during the pre-Fed rally, likely near 91,500. Indicator Breakdown Relative Strength Index (RSI): The current 14-day RSI reading for BTC is reportedly near 29.151. This places the asset squarely in the oversold territory (below 30), suggesting that the recent selling pressure has been overextended on a short-term momentum basis. While this often flags a potential counter-trend bounce, in a strong bearish market driven by macro factors, oversold conditions can persist or be rapidly superseded by even lower readings. MACD: The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is signaling weakness, with a value of -188. This negative reading confirms bearish momentum. Crucially, the MACD line must be observed relative to its signal line; a crossover below the signal line or a histogram collapsing further below zero will confirm the continuation of the current downward trend structure, overriding the oversold signal from the RSI. Exponential/Simple Moving Averages (EMA/SMA): The confluence of moving averages presents an overwhelmingly bearish picture. Across key short-to-medium term MAs (MA5, MA10, MA20, MA50), the technical summary indicates a "Strong Sell" across the board, with nearly all individual MA readings signaling a sell. This clearly demonstrates that the short-term price action is trading significantly below the prevailing short-term trend structures, reinforcing the risk-off thesis. The current price is below the 91,093.2 5-day EMA and the 91,342.2 200-day SMA, illustrating severe downside velocity relative to historical averages. Bollinger Bands: With volatility likely spiking due to the rate decision aftermath, the Bollinger Bands are expected to be wide or widening. A price trading near or below the lower band is indicative of significant downside deviation from the 20-period SMA, signaling potential short-term exhaustion *if* the trend were neutral. However, in the context of a confirmed breakdown, it often acts as a trajectory line until price reverts toward the mean, which is currently positioned well above 89,754. Stochastic Oscillator: The Stochastic Oscillator (\%K and \%D) is showing a reading of 96.512. This is an overbought reading, which conflicts sharply with the RSI reading, suggesting that short-term price action volatility may be masking true momentum or, more likely, that the market is experiencing temporary, sharp price *rejections* from lower levels that briefly push the oscillator high, rather than true strength. This divergence warrants caution against a premature long entry solely based on the Stochastic being oversold, as the RSI offers a more reliable momentum reading in this context. Volume Profile: While specific intraday volume profile data is unavailable, the initial price action suggests the decline occurred on elevated distribution volume, typical of a "sell-the-news" event. Sustained selling on low volume would be less concerning; conversely, a rebound attempt requires a significant spike in buying volume to invalidate the current bearish structure implied by the MAs. Fibonacci Retracements: As noted under Price Action, the immediate area of the 89,750 range contains the 38.2% retracement level from the recent swing low, making it a critical line in the sand. A decisive close below this level suggests that the market structure is preparing to test the next major cluster, likely the 50% level around 88,000 (extrapolated from typical pivot point proximity). Chart Patterns: The context strongly suggests a Bearish Rising Wedge Breakdown. The initial rally into the Fed announcement formed the upper boundary, and the subsequent rejection below 90,000 confirms the pattern's failure, projecting a measured move target aligning with the lower Fibonacci support levels below the current price. Ichimoku Cloud: Without specific Kijun-sen and Senkou Span values, a full analysis is limited. However, a strong MA crossover (price below all major MAs) typically implies that the price is trading below the Kumo (Cloud), which acts as dynamic long-term support. If BTC is below the Kumo on the daily chart, it confirms a macro bearish environment. Conclusion Conclusion The technical landscape for Bitcoin at 89,754 is currently tilted towards continued short-term downside risk, despite clear signs of exhaustion according to certain momentum indicators. The decisive break below the psychological 90,000 barrier has established a new, immediate resistance level, shifting the balance of power to sellers. The bearish scenario is substantiated by the negative momentum confirmed by the MACD reading of -188 and the overwhelming confluence presented by the moving averages. A failure to defend the immediate support cluster around 89,750 (Fibonacci 38.2% retracement/Classic Pivot Point) could initiate a rapid descent toward the 88,500 support zone. Conversely, the bullish counter-argument rests primarily on the short-term Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading near 29.151, placing BTC firmly in oversold territory. This suggests the recent selling wave has been technically overextended, making the asset ripe for a sharp, albeit potentially short-lived, technical bounce or consolidation. Final Technical Verdict: Bearish Bias. While technically oversold, the dominant bearish momentum confirmed by the MACD and the clear breach of critical support/resistance levels suggest that the path of least resistance remains downward until a definitive reversal pattern prints on higher volume. *** *Disclaimer: This analysis is based purely on technical indicators and market structure at the time of writing. It is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.*