Introduction Technical Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC) - December 4, 2025 Welcome to the daily technical market brief from BitMorpho. As of Thursday, December 4, 2025, Bitcoin (BTC) is exhibiting notable bullish momentum, consolidating above the significant 94,000 level, marking a substantial 1.3% increase over the last 24 hours, which is reportedly its highest daily gain since May. This upward movement has successfully seen Bitcoin rebound and surpass the critical 93,000 price point, establishing what some analysts are terming a necessary relief rally. The current price action has triggered the confirmation of several positive technical patterns, including a potential Cup and Handle formation on the four-hour chart. The broader market sentiment appears to be shifting, fueled by macroeconomic policy expectations and a notable decline in market fear, evidenced by a drop in the 30-day Implied Volatility Index (BVIV). This cooling of anxiety often precedes sustained directional price movement. Key resistance targets are now being cited in the 98,000 to 100,000 zone, with some projections suggesting a potential rally toward $107,000 should key daily closing levels be maintained. However, the backdrop remains complex. While technical indicators lean bullish post-breakout, institutional behavior shows divergence, with one major holder significantly reducing its Bitcoin purchase rate, suggesting preparation for an extended period of volatility or a potential long bear market. Furthermore, the technical setup is highly sensitive to upcoming macroeconomic data releases; stronger-than-expected labor or inflation reports could swiftly dampen relief rally expectations and trigger sharp reversals. Our analysis will proceed by dissecting the volume supporting this break, assessing the strength of identified chart formations, and evaluating the interplay between this bullish technical setup and the underlying institutional sentiment in the subsequent sections. Technical Analysis Technical Indicator Deep Dive: BTC on December 4, 2025 The recent bullish surge, as noted in the introduction, warrants a rigorous technical dissection of the underlying indicators to confirm the validity and potential duration of this relief rally. The confluence of signals across momentum, trend, and volatility oscillators paints a largely positive, yet cautiously extended, picture for Bitcoin. Price Action and Key Levels The immediate price action has established a critical short-term support zone around the 93,000 mark, which served as a psychological and technical barrier that has now been reclaimed. The next significant resistance cluster lies between 98,000 and 100,000, aligning with the projected target zone. Fibonacci pivots suggest immediate resistance at R1 at 93,610.8 and a more substantial test at R2 at 94,025.9, with the psychological 100,000 level acting as the primary hurdle before a potential extension toward the 107,000 target suggested by pattern extrapolation. A break and daily close below the 93,000 pivot would signal a failure of the current structure and prompt a retest of lower support levels. Momentum and Trend Oscillators The Relative Strength Index (RSI) for the 14-period calculation currently reads at 62.147, indicating strong upward momentum that is firmly out of the oversold territory (below 30) but has not yet entered the typically overbought realm (above 70). This suggests there is still room for upward price discovery before exhausting momentum, supporting a continued rally. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) line sits at 730.400, signaling a clear "Buy" with the MACD line above its signal line, confirming bullish momentum and trend alignment following the recent breakout. The Stochastic Oscillator (STOCH(9,6)) is registering at 99.293, which is deep into the Overbought territory (typically >80). This is a critical divergence from the RSI, suggesting that while the trend is strong, the short-term rate of ascent is extremely high and an imminent cooling-off or consolidation phase is probable. The Stochastic RSI (STOCHRSI(14)) at 63.619 is more balanced, suggesting the *rate of change* is still bullish but not at an extreme. Trend Following Indicators (EMA/SMA & Ichimoku) The Exponential Moving Averages (EMA) and Simple Moving Averages (SMA) exhibit near-unanimous bullish conviction across short to medium-term frames. For instance, the 5-day SMA is at 93,429.9 and the 50-day SMA sits at 91,066.8, with the current price above all surveyed moving averages, indicating a strong, confirmed uptrend across multiple time horizons. The Moving Averages summary rating is a definitive Strong Buy. The Ichimoku Cloud structure, while not providing specific numerical values from the search, is implicitly supportive given the overall "Strong Buy" technical rating; the current price action being above the cloud base would confirm a robust bullish trend state, with the cloud itself acting as dynamic support underneath. Volatility and Pattern Confirmation Bollinger Bands analysis, though specific readings are absent, is contextualized by the volatility metric ATR being flagged as "High Volatility." A sharp move like the one seen often involves the price pressing against the upper Bollinger Band, suggesting the current move is aggressive and is now susceptible to a move back toward the mean (the 20-day MA, near $92,904.2) if upward pressure subsides. Fibonacci Retracement levels are essential for the next leg. The Fibonacci Pivot Point is 93,318.2. Successful navigation above this area suggests the breakout utilized previous retracement resistance levels as launch points, lending credibility to the potential Cup and Handle formation mentioned in the introduction, which targets the highs near the 100k mark. Volume Analysis While explicit volume metrics were not returned, the fact that the $93,000 breakout was achieved with a "1.3% increase over the last 24 hours, which is reportedly its highest daily gain since May" strongly implies that this move was underpinned by significant buying volume. The sustained maintenance of price above the current support zone will be the true test of whether this volume represents true institutional absorption or merely short-term speculative overflow. In synthesis, the momentum indicators (RSI, MACD) confirm the bullish breakout, while the extreme level of the Stochastic oscillator warns of short-term exhaustion risk. The SMA/EMA structure provides strong trend confirmation. The critical watch remains the 98k-100k resistance zone and whether the market can digest current gains without a sharp Stochastic-driven pullback. Conclusion Conclusion: Technical Analysis of BTC on December 4, 2025 The technical landscape for Bitcoin remains decidedly bullish, underpinned by strong momentum signals following the recent ascent. The reclaiming of the 93,000 support level sets the stage for a continuation toward the primary resistance cluster situated between 98,000 and $100,000. The MACD confirms the ongoing bullish trend alignment, and the RSI at 62.147 suggests sufficient headroom for further upward price discovery before momentum is technically exhausted. However, caution is warranted due to the Stochastic Oscillator deep in Overbought territory (\approx 99.3), indicating that the recent move has been rapid and the market may be due for a short-term consolidation or pullback. This overbought condition presents the most immediate potential headwind. The Bullish Scenario relies on holding the immediate pivot support around 93,000, leading to a decisive breach of the 100,000 psychological barrier and a potential extension towards the 107,000 target. The Bearish Scenario is triggered if the price fails to sustain above 93,000, suggesting the current rally is short-lived and could lead to a retest of lower structural supports. Technical Verdict: Given the trend confirmation from the MACD and room on the RSI, the bias remains Bullish, but it is a cautiously extended bullish bias requiring vigilance for a potential Stochastic-induced correction. *** *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational and educational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own research before making investment decisions.*