Introduction BitMorpho Technical Analysis: BTC Market Post-November Drawdown Date: Friday, December 5, 2025 The cryptocurrency landscape begins today under a cloud of recent bearish pressure, following a challenging November for Bitcoin (BTC) that saw significant price action and sentiment shifts. As of early December, BTC is trading near the 91,000 level, having broken below key psychological barriers such as 91,000 during intraday moves, after recovering from mid-80,000 lows recently observed. This follows a sharp correction from all-time highs previously set above 126,000, which resulted in the liquidation of bearish bets and a market capitalization loss exceeding $1 trillion from peak levels. Current market sentiment reflects this volatility, with generalized investor mood registering in "Extreme Fear" territory on some gauges, signaling pervasive risk aversion across participants. However, technical analysis suggests a complex interplay between seasonal weakness and structural shifts. Despite historical bearish probabilities for December following a negative November, recent price action is structurally different, supported by the persistent flow of capital via spot ETFs. Furthermore, late-November saw a shift in ETF dynamics, with choppy but positive aggregate flows suggesting institutional actors are selectively re-accumulating on the dip, contrasting with the heavier outflows seen earlier in the month. Technically, Bitcoin is currently struggling to decisively overcome the 93,000–94,000 resistance band, which acts as a pivotal zone to confirm a sustainable bullish continuation. With leverage across derivatives markets normalizing after previous liquidation waves, market positioning appears less overheated, potentially resetting the stage for base-building. While the market remains fragile and technical conviction is being tested, the divergence between on-chain accumulation by large wallets and broader macro liquidity dynamics suggests that the market is in a phase of transition moving from panic-driven selling toward data-driven accumulation. This report will now delve into volume profiles and key indicator readings to ascertain the probability of continuation versus deeper consolidation. Technical Analysis BitMorpho Technical Analysis: BTC Market Post-November Drawdown Date: Friday, December 5, 2025 Price Action Analysis: The Tug-of-War Near $92,000 Bitcoin is currently trading around the 91,982 level, establishing a tentative foothold above the critical 90,000 psychological support, a level that coincides with the 100-day Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The immediate hurdle remains the congestion zone between 92,500 and 94,000, which appears to be a confluence of the 50-day EMA and the Upper Bollinger Band on some analyses. A confirmed break and close above the 93,000 handle is necessary to signal a sustainable bullish continuation towards the next resistance points, namely the 95,000 and 97,000 markers, with the major psychological target being 100,000. On the downside, immediate support rests at the 90,000 (100 EMA) level, with a more robust band of support located near 89,000. Losing the 89,000 level would likely invite a retest of lower supports, potentially towards 84,000. The structure suggests a market trying to solidify a base after the sharp drawdown from the all-time high near $126,000, exhibiting a shift from bearish dominance to an arguably neutral or accumulation phase. Indicator Deep Dive Relative Strength Index (RSI): The 14-period RSI currently registers around 45.66. This reading places the asset firmly in neutral territory, indicating a lack of sustained directional momentum, consistent with the current consolidation phase below key resistance. It is neither overbought (typically >70) nor oversold (typically <30), reinforcing the "transition" narrative mentioned in the context. MACD (12, 26): The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is showing a value of -187.5, which points to a current "Sell" signal, suggesting the short-term EMA (12) is below the long-term EMA (26). This bearish alignment indicates that the underlying momentum from the recent price action remains suppressed, despite the recent relief rally. EMA/SMA: The Exponential Moving Averages are presenting a mixed but predominantly cautionary picture. The EMA 50 acts as immediate resistance near 92,500, while the EMA 100 provides support near 91,522. The fact that the price is currently trading *below* the EMA 50 but *above* the EMA 100 epitomizes the current structural ambiguity short-term trend weakness juxtaposed against mid-term trend support. Bollinger Bands: Volatility appears relatively contained, suggesting a period of contraction, which often precedes a significant expansion in price movement. The current price action is tightly hugging the middle band (SMA 20), pressing against the Upper Band near $93,000. A decisive break above the Upper Band would signal a significant bullish expansion. Ichimoku Cloud: While specific values are unavailable, the context implies that the asset is likely attempting to reclaim or establish a position relative to the Ichimoku Cloud structure. Price action below the cloud would generally signal a bearish trend, while trading above indicates bullish control. Given the mixed EMA signals, the price is likely testing the boundaries of this cloud structure, which acts as dynamic support/resistance. Fibonacci Retracement: Based on recent swing points, the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level is cited near 91,400. The market's ability to hold above this initial retracement level, often a measure of weak-hand selling exhaustion, is crucial for sustaining the current structure. Further up, the 94,000 level is noted as a high-volume node, coinciding with resistance and potentially the 0.382 or 0.50 retracement of a larger move, making it a high-conviction resistance zone. Volume Profile: The context notes that market depth and overall trading volume have not fully recovered, suggesting liquidity remains a constraint. Low volume during the recent bounce keeps the bullish conviction suspect, indicating that the move might lack the necessary fuel for a sustained breakout until accumulation truly resumes. Stochastic Oscillator: The primary Stochastic Oscillator (%K) is reading an extreme 99.379, indicating the asset is in Overbought territory. This suggests the recent upward momentum has been sharp and rapid, increasing the probability of a short-term pullback or consolidation to cool off the oscillator before any further upward expansion can occur. This starkly contrasts with the market sentiment gauge of "Extreme Fear." Chart Patterns No dominant, established classic pattern (like Head and Shoulders or a clear Flag) is explicitly identified with current data. However, the price is interacting with key moving averages and bands in a manner that suggests a period of volatility contraction following the large November impulse move. This environment often sets the stage for either a continuation pattern (like a Bull Flag) or a reversal pattern if the key support levels fail. The current action is best described as a consolidation phase between the strong support at 89k/90k and the critical resistance cluster near $94k. Conclusion Conclusion: BTC Market Positioning - A Crucial Juncture The technical landscape for Bitcoin post-November drawdown suggests the market is currently in a critical consolidation or accumulation phase, attempting to solidify support above the psychological and technical 90,000 level (100-day EMA). The current price action around 91,982 reflects a balance between buyers defending this floor and sellers maintaining resistance below $94,000. Bullish Scenario: A decisive close above 93,000 would invalidate near-term bearish pressure, setting the stage for a potential rally toward the 95,000 and ultimately the major $100,000 psychological target. Bearish Scenario: Failure to hold the 90,000 support, particularly breaking below the robust 89,000 zone, would likely trigger a deeper retracement towards the $84,000 area. The current MACD signal reinforces that short-term momentum remains bearishly aligned. Technical Verdict: Given the simultaneous presence of the RSI sitting firmly in neutral territory (\approx 45.66) and the MACD's current bearish alignment, the overall technical bias is Neutral with a slight Bearish undertone pending a confirmed breakout or breakdown from the current tight range. Traders should monitor the 90,000 - 93,000 band for directional conviction. *** *Disclaimer: This analysis is purely technical in nature and should not be construed as financial advice. Always conduct your own thorough research before making any investment decisions.*