In the perpetually dynamic and often chaotic sphere of global financial markets, where billions are won and lost with the flick of a chart's tick, Bitcoin maintains its stature as the undisputed heavyweight champion. It serves as both a beacon of decentralized finance and, during periods of sharp correction, a dramatic testament to the volatility inherent in innovation. Today, November 15, 2025, the view on the screens is one of deep caution. The critical question on every trader's mind is whether this aggressive downturn, which has breached the significant $95,000 threshold, represents a necessary cleansing breath before a massive surge, or if it is the drumbeat signaling the arrival of a more protracted, larger-scale bear market. Our analysis must commence with the indisputable, hard data. Bitcoin’s current market price is stabilizing, albeit tenuously, around 96,221. This level represents a measurable 1.3% drop from the day's opening candle at 97,500 GMT, indicating ongoing selling pressure since the start of the trading day. Examining the broader context, the past seven days have witnessed BTC hemorrhaging approximately 6.81% of its value. Over the monthly horizon, the bleeding has been more severe, tallying up to a substantial 13.15% loss. The key task for sophisticated market participants is to differentiate whether these metrics are merely transient market 'noise' driven by short-term fear, or whether they reflect deep-seated alarm bells that signal a fundamental shift in market sentiment and structure. From a technical analysis perspective, a granular focus on established support and resistance levels is crucial. These levels function as the market’s invisible architecture, dictating where price movements are most likely to pause or reverse. The immediate and most critical support level is positioned firmly at 95,000. In recent trading sessions, this has been the epicenter of a fierce battle, with dedicated buyers stepping in repeatedly to defend the floor and prevent a steeper cascade. Should the overwhelming selling pressure manage to convincingly crack this vital level, the immediate downside target shifts to 92,000. This 92K level aligns closely with prior swing lows, providing a secondary layer of defense. Further down, the 90,000 mark is less a technical point and more a powerful psychological fortress, where large-scale buy orders often congregate, typically resulting in significant volume spikes as traders anticipate a major reversal or consolidation. Conversely, the path to a powerful recovery is obstructed by a series of resistance barriers. The first major hurdle is the psychologically critical 100,000 round number. A decisive, high-volume break and sustained close above this figure would be a strong catalyst for renewed positive sentiment, clearing the way toward the 102,000 level. The subsequent formidable resistance looms at $106,000. This area is not only a key Fibonacci retracement zone but also a convergence point for several crucial short-term moving averages (like the 21-day EMA), making it a prime location for committed sellers to re-enter the market and challenge any upward momentum. Delving into technical indicators allows us to use a microscope on the market's hidden dynamics. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI), a widely trusted momentum oscillator, is currently hovering around the 25 mark. This reading is a loud and clear declaration of *oversold* conditions implying the asset has been aggressively de-risked and may be structurally primed for a swift snapback rally. Historical precedents frequently link RSI readings at these lows with sharp, counter-trend reversals. However, prudence is essential; in the hyper-volatile realm of cryptocurrencies, an oversold condition is not an automatic 'buy' signal, as the price can often linger in oversold territory during prolonged downtrends. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator corroborates the prevailing narrative. The MACD line is situated below the signal line, and the histogram remains deep in negative territory, unequivocally confirming the dominance of bearish momentum across shorter timeframes. Nevertheless, an intriguing observation surfaces on the weekly charts: nascent signs of potential positive divergence are beginning to peek through. Here, while the price continues to establish lower lows, the MACD line shows signs of flattening or even beginning to curl upwards. This divergence could be an early, yet critical, signal of profound seller exhaustion and a tentative preparation for a major structural shift. Examining the Simple Moving Averages (SMA) offers vital confirmation of the current trend. The 50-day SMA is positioned near 101,500, and the longer-term 200-day SMA sits at 98,500. With Bitcoin’s price currently trading below both of these key moving averages, a *bearish crossover* signal is firmly established. Crucially, the 200-day SMA has a historical role as the long-term bedrock of support for the asset. A confirmed, sustained pierce below the 200 SMA would undoubtedly trigger stronger, more serious red flags for long-term strategic investors and potentially accelerate institutional selling. From a market psychology standpoint, the Fear & Greed Index, the widely-cited gauge of collective market sentiment, is firmly anchored at 10, placing it squarely in *extreme fear* territory. The contrarian view, famously stated, is to be greedy when others are fearful. Many seasoned analysts view these troughs of extreme fear as the most opportune periods for strategic accumulation. On social media platforms, particularly X, the term 'shakeouts' is trending a scenario where weak-handed buyers are liquidated just below key price levels to efficiently clear market liquidity and set the stage for a powerful upward breakout. A highly-regarded analyst recently drew parallels between the current higher-low structure at the golden Fibonacci retracement level and the market dynamics observed during Q1 2025, a period where BTC dramatically collapsed from 110K to 74K before launching an explosive rally to $126K. It is imperative to maintain realism regarding the powerful role of external, macro forces. Broader economic stresses, including global quantitative tightening policies, constrained systemic liquidity, and routine tax-season related asset selling, have collectively exerted downward pressure on risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The digital asset has now wiped out nearly all of its gains accumulated in 2025 and is underperforming the broader equity markets. Michael Saylor, the influential strategist and long-term holder advocate, consistently advises his peers: 'Stay the course; this volatility is simply the predictable rhythm of the cycle.' His perspective is grounded in historical reality; past deep corrections have consistently provided the necessary foundation and fuel for the subsequent, often explosive, leg of the bull market. The weekly price chart reveals the formation of a classic *descending triangle* pattern, defined by a horizontal support base at 95K and a downward-sloping resistance line originating near 106K. A decisive break below this pattern's support could project a price target as low as 85K. However, a glimmer of hope remains: the selling volume has been noticeably low relative to prior major capitulation events, breeding skepticism among analysts regarding the potential for a full-scale, devastating bear rout. On the daily timeframe, the prevalence of 'doji-like' candles indicates significant indecision and a short-term equilibrium between buyers and sellers. Trading volume over the last 24 hours registers approximately 30 billion, which, while subdued compared to the market peaks, remains stable enough to suggest institutional interest is not entirely dormant. For short-term, nimble traders, the current tactical playbook is clear: patient observation is key for the critical 95K test. If the support holds firm, a low-risk long position targeting the 100K resistance is justifiable. Conversely, a convincing failure to hold 95K opens the door for a short trade, targeting the next support at 92K. For long-term investors (HODLers) with an expansive time horizon, this current price *dip* should be viewed strategically as a discounted entry opportunity. Given the profound, recent halving event and the sustained, increasing trend of institutional inflows (such as spot ETFs), the long-term horizon for 2026 remains exceptionally bright. Current consensus forecasts continue to project a price range of $131K or higher by the end of the next year, underscoring the long-term bullish narrative. The core message remains: diversify, utilize stop-losses, and never trade based on emotion alone. Bitcoin has proven its resilience time and again and will surely reach new heights patience is the greatest virtue in this market.