The crypto world is always a rollercoaster, and October 22, 2025, was no exception for Ethereum. With a 1.99% drop, ETH's price settled around $3,862 – a point where the daily candle opened at $3,932 in GMT timezone. This slide was part of a broader downturn, as Bitcoin fell 1.35% toward $108,000. But really, is this just a quick breather, or a sign of a new crypto winter? Let's break down the drivers. Trade tensions, particularly Trump's proposed 155% tariffs on China, have cast a heavy shadow over risk assets like ETH. He's said a meeting with Xi Jinping might not happen, yet expects a 'good deal.' This uncertainty has investors pulling back. On the flip side, the nearing US-India deal slashing tariffs to 15-16% could lift emerging markets – and ETH as a DeFi gateway. On the macro stage, the Federal Reserve steals the show. Waller's October 21 speech emphasized contractionary policies, but the government shutdown has stalled key data. Analysts call this the 'final dip' before rate cuts, potentially lifting ETH to $4,500. The current rate is 4.11%, with markets pricing a 25 bps trim this October. Cuts typically favor ETH, funneling liquidity to altcoins. Now, onto brighter notes. The Fusaka upgrade is in final testnet, capping gas at 16.78M – a tweak that boosts transaction efficiency and reins in fees. The Ethereum Foundation shuffled $654M in ETH across internal wallets, possibly for dev or staking. Plus, U.S. retail giant Bealls now takes crypto payments – including ETH – pushing adoption to new heights. Amid the red market, these sparked some optimism. Of course, it's not all smooth. Technicals show ETH testing $3,850 support. RSI at 45 (neutral), MACD with a mild bearish signal. A break could target $3,700; holding might rebound to $4,000 resistance. Tether minted another 1B USDT on Ethereum, boosting volume but adding short-term sell pressure. Trading volume hit about $15B in 24 hours, with $120M liquidations for large holders below $4,000. But sellers seem fatigued, with spent ETH from long-term holders down 99%. In Asia, Japan's exports grew 4.2% despite U.S. tariffs, aiding global stability. The yen's drop post-Takaichi's PM election strengthened the dollar, but funnels Japanese capital to crypto. BoE rang alarms on private credit, spotlighting systemic risks – making ETH a compelling alternative. Bitwise research says a 3-4% gold rotation (down 5% lately) could double ETH. Coinbase's $375M Echo buy bridges on-chain capital to mainstream. Starknet launched Earn, and Tether's mint signals network trust. Analysts like Liquidity Doctor eye $5,500 in November, with an inverse H&S in ETH dominance. Traders should follow the 5 news steps: prepare, analyze expectations, define entries/exits, execute disciplined, review. Finally, U.S. housing's 3-4M unit shortage erodes affordability, slowing growth. Paired with cuts, it tames inflation, bolstering ETH as a hedge.