Ethereum (ETH), the quiet powerhouse and foundational layer of the decentralized finance (DeFi) world, has consistently demonstrated its proficiency as a market surfer experiencing thrilling crests and sudden, deep crashes. As of November 23, 2025, with the daily candle opening at $2,732.45 in the GMT timezone, it appears ETH is gathering momentum, taking a crucial, deep breath within a necessary corrective wave. The price is currently oscillating around $2,805.89, which signifies a healthy 2.86% rebound in the last 24 hours from the critical low of $2,704.50. These recent drawdowns, equating to approximately a 13.95% weekly decline, should not be viewed as the conclusion of the market cycle but rather as essential pit stops offering attractive entry opportunities for smart, patient buyers. With the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI) positioned at 52.34 and a 24-hour trading volume of $17.87 billion, the paramount question remains: Does this current price floor mark the accumulation zone where major 'whales' will dive in to initiate the next significant rally? In-Depth Technical Chart Analysis and Key Patterns The daily ETH/USD chart paints a picture of a fatigued yet fundamentally hopeful market. Since October 2025, Ethereum has been confined within a gentle descending channel, oscillating primarily between the $2,700 and $3,500 boundaries. The recent price action, however, featured a decisive rejection of the $2,704 support, manifested by the formation of a 'green hammer candle' a robust bullish reversal pattern characterized by a positive body and a long lower shadow. The significance of the $2,704.50 level is magnified by its confluence with the psychological $2,700 support, a key Volume Profile Visible Range (VPVR) area, and the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement level of the most recent downtrend. This critical cluster of support has effectively absorbed the selling pressure. Historical analysis reveals a fascinating fractal: in November 2024, ETH executed a powerful bounce from a remarkably similar support zone (near $1,850) that catalyzed a 140% surge. Market patterns frequently echo historical lessons, reinforcing the current low as a high-probability reversal zone. Identifying pivotal support and resistance levels is crucial for forecasting Ethereum's immediate trajectory. The primary support floor is firmly established at $2,704, which also closely aligns with the 200-day Moving Average (200-day MA) hovering around $2,789. Maintaining a sustained price above this crucial MA is vital for confirming the long-term bullish structure. A definitive breach below $2,704 could trigger a cascading sell-off, targeting the next major support around $2,630. On-chain data indicates this $2,630 area is a high-demand zone, where large holders (whales) previously accumulated over $241 million. Conversely, immediate resistances are positioned at $2,850 and $2,950. A strong daily close above the $2,850 level would generate a solid bullish signal, potentially mirroring the explosive run in August 2025 that led to an all-time high attempt at $4,830. A decisive breakout above $2,950 would pave the way for a test of the psychological $3,000 barrier and the upper trendline of the descending channel, located near $3,200. A Closer Look at Technical Indicators Technical indicators are signaling a distinct shift in market momentum. The 14-day RSI, currently at 52.34, suggests a neutral-to-bullish stance. The indicator has successfully crossed above the 50 centerline after dipping into the oversold territory near 29, a clear sign of renewed buying strength. This momentum reversal is corroborated by the fact that 13 of the last 30 trading days have been positive, confirming the 9.72% observed volatility. Furthermore, the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator has flashed a compelling 'bullish crossover,' with its histogram turning positive to +2.78, unequivocally endorsing short-term buyer momentum. Bollinger Bands analysis shows the lower band at $2,765 has been squeezed, and the price is reverting to the $2,820 middle band. This 'expansion' following a period of tight compression often serves as a prelude to significant, explosive price movements. On the long-term front, the highly regarded 'Mayer Multiple' which measures the ratio of the current price to the 200-day MA has briefly fallen to or below 1. Historically, this reading has consistently flagged a deep accumulation zone and a potential long-term cycle bottom for Ethereum, suggesting the asset is currently trading at a discount relative to its established long-term trend. This metric, combined with the strong on-chain support, provides a powerful confirmation signal for patient investors. Macro View and Fundamental Drivers: Fusaka and Institutional Flow From a macro and fundamental perspective, Ethereum is poised to benefit from powerful long-term catalysts. The pivotal 'Fusaka' upgrade, scheduled for December 3, is widely regarded as a genuine 'game-changer.' This upgrade, officially known as 'Dencun' and including the transformative EIP-4844 (Proto-Danksharding), will double the network's 'blob capacity,' leading to an anticipated reduction in Layer 2 (L2) transaction fees by up to 95%. This technical breakthrough is set to propel network throughput (TPS) beyond 12,000 transactions per second, solidifying Ethereum's infrastructure for global-scale adoption. The substantial reduction in L2 costs will make the Ethereum ecosystem highly competitive and, critically, it will further enhance the 'ultrasound money' narrative. Increased usage and transaction volume will lead to a higher rate of ETH fee burning, accelerating the asset's deflationary supply mechanism. Institutionally, the tailwinds are substantial. The approval and subsequent rollout of Spot Ethereum ETFs have attracted significant capital, accumulating $1.1 billion in Assets Under Management (AUM YTD). This institutional demand, coupled with the rising volume of ETH locked in staking which restricts circulating supply acts as a powerful supply shock. Whales continue to demonstrate strong accumulation signals, and the total value locked (TVL) in DeFi on the Ethereum network remains robust at $95 billion. The synergy of these fundamental catalysts has led a number of prominent analysts to forecast that these drivers will propel ETH into the $3,850–$3,900 range by the close of November, setting the stage for even higher price targets thereafter. Risk Management and Future Trajectory Despite the overwhelmingly positive signals, a degree of realism and caution is necessary. A failure to hold the critical $2,704 support could result in a deeper, cascading move toward the projected cycle low around $2,200, should selling pressure intensify. The current reading of the Fear & Greed Index at 14 signifies 'extreme fear,' and recent high-volume liquidations amplify short-term risks. The essential question for traders is whether this extreme level of fear, consistent with previous market bottoms, will rapidly transition into 'greed,' triggering a substantial new buying frenzy. On the weekly chart, the bearish pennant pattern is nearing its resolution, with an upside breakout highly probable if the price can achieve a sustained close above $2,850. The 50-day MA at $2,893 is currently overhead and declining, but the 200-day MA remains bullishly angled, confirming the healthy, robust long-term market structure. Short-term probability forecasts suggest a 60% chance of a rebound to $2,950 within the next five days, a 25% chance of hitting $3,000 by month-end, and a 15% chance of a dip to $2,600. Looking mid-term, a Fusaka-fueled rally targeting $4,000–$4,500 during December is highly feasible and structurally sound. The broader Altcoin market is anticipating a strong lead from ETH, with Layer 2 protocols like Arbitrum and Optimism already exhibiting selective rallies based on the imminent network enhancements. Ethereum has appreciated by +57% Year-to-Date (YTD) from its low of $1,786 in 2025 to its current level of $2,806. Consensus forecasts for the full year 2025 range from $3,850 to $9,428, with an average target of $4,746, underscoring the high growth potential. Long-term holders are advised to remain patient; this dip should be considered a 'gift.' New entrants are wise to await a confirmed daily close above $2,850 for a safer entry, as Ethereum's history is defined by powerful and consistent rebounds.