The sensation of a crypto winter hit hard with sharp selling pressure on November 22, 2025. Dogecoin (DOGE), the popular meme coin that transitioned from a mere joke to a global digital asset, experienced a 4.74% plunge, settling around $0.138. The daily candle opened at $0.145 in the GMT timezone, but intense selling activity drove the price lower, with the 24-hour trading volume spiking to $2.31 billion. This sharp decline, following the All-Time High (ATH) of $0.46 in November 2024, serves as a harsh reminder of the extreme volatility inherent in hype-driven markets. The fundamental question for investors is whether Dogecoin, backed by its massive community and the iconic Shiba Inu grin, will stage another dramatic comeback, or if market caution, driven by macro factors, has finally put a leash on its volatility. Foundational Analysis: From Political Hype to the Institutional Paradox DOGE's pronounced volatility during this period is rooted in a confluence of political events, social excitement, and overarching economic pressures. November 2024 was a crucial turning point for Dogecoin; the political victory of Trump and speculative rumors regarding increased support and influence from Elon Musk over a hypothetical 'DOGE department' on the X platform fueled a historic rally from $0.08 to a peak of $0.46. However, 2025 began with global trade and tariff wars, which reduced overall risk appetite and dragged the DOGE price down to $0.17. Now, in mid-autumn, a new narrative centered on Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) has taken center stage. The potential introduction of DOGE ETFs creates a fascinating paradox. Firms like Bitwise have already submitted amended S-1 forms, and Grayscale is actively working to convert its existing Dogecoin Trust into a spot ETF. With only 20 days remaining until the critical SEC decision, the market is anxiously tracking these developments. The approval of these ETFs would inject a massive amount of institutional liquidity into the Dogecoin market, effectively transforming it from a pure 'meme coin' into a 'legitimate investment asset' in the eyes of traditional finance analysts. This influx of institutional capital would represent a powerful bullish catalyst. Contrasting these institutional hopes are the macroeconomic caution signals from the U.S. Federal Reserve. Cautious remarks from officials like Williams, predicting a 70% probability of an interest rate cut in December but emphasizing prudence, created mixed market sentiment. For DOGE, which is inherently dependent on public sentiment and risk-taking, this is a double-edged dynamic: rate cuts and increased liquidity are favorable, but the underlying fear of 'sticky' inflation warned by ING for 2026, citing potential Trump stimulus checks of $2,000 and renewed China stimuli is a significant deterrent. Inflationary Dynamics and the Structural DOGE Reform Proposal The impact of inflation on DOGE for 2026 is a subject of intense debate. ING specifically cautions that the upcoming year could be full of inflationary shocks stemming from potential expansionary fiscal policies and global economic stimuli. While these stimuli would reinforce demand growth, they face existing global supply constraints, which could lead to sustained higher inflation. Nevertheless, current economic indicators, such as the S&P PMI hitting 54.8 and Q4 GDP growth estimated at 2.5%, point towards rising consumer confidence and an increased appetite for risk. In such an environment, high-risk assets and meme coins like DOGE typically fare well, as investors become more optimistic and seek higher returns. The most significant fundamental shift is the viral discussion surrounding a major structural reform proposal for DOGE: a 90% reduction in block rewards, from 5 billion DOGE to only 500 million DOGE annually. If ratified by the community, this plan would fundamentally alter Dogecoin’s economic model. DOGE has historically been criticized for its unlimited supply and high inflation rate. A drastic reduction in rewards would introduce a serious 'scarcity' mechanism, transforming the token into a much lower-inflation asset. This shift would move its long-term growth potential from being purely hype-driven to being justified by improving fundamentals. This action would mark a major step toward serious acceptance of DOGE as a potential store of value, supplementing its existing role as a payment utility. Whale Activity and Technical Breakdown Despite the recent price volatility, on-chain data indicates that 'whales' (large market players) maintain strong conviction, accumulating an estimated 3 billion DOGE. However, signals remain mixed, as concurrent selling activity is also being observed. Data from Santiment highlights that despite the 49% price drop since September, the number of active addresses and community participation is increasing a classic bullish divergence in on-chain analysis. This suggests that the network's underlying activity and fundamentals remain robust, even as short-term price action suffers. From a technical perspective, the price is moving within a descending channel, but trading volume remains active with an 8.43% volatility spike. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is positioned at 35, bordering the oversold territory, and the MACD shows a bullish divergence, all confirming a strong likelihood of a price rebound. Key price levels for traders include critical support at $0.135–$0.138 and immediate resistance at $0.15. A decisive break below $0.13 could open the path for a further decline to $0.11, which would signal a more bearish scenario. However, the confluence of inflation reduction discussions and imminent ETF approvals suggests that the stars are aligning for Dogecoin. Forecasts estimate the price could climb to $0.22 by the end of November and potentially reach $0.33–$0.75 in 2025. Dogecoin is evolving from a simple joke into a serious asset with an improving economic structure and growing institutional acceptance. Strategy Summary: The current dip presents an accumulation opportunity for long-term holders (HODLers). DOGE's growth potential is driven by its community strength, the pending entry of ETFs, and the substantial improvement in its inflationary structure. (Rewritten and expanded)