Introduction BitMorpho: Daily News & Fundamentals Report - Saturday, December 6, 2025 Good morning, crypto investors, and welcome to your Saturday digest focusing on the raw data and macro shifts that underpin the Bitcoin market. As we close out the first week of December, the narrative is dominated by significant institutional capital movements and wavering, yet cautious, consumer sentiment, painting a mixed backdrop for digital assets. The immediate concern for BTC is the continuation of institutional headwinds. On-chain analysts are sounding the alarm as buying pressure from the crucial 100-1,000 BTC wallet cohort which includes ETFs and corporate treasuries has slowed dramatically, breaking a long-term trendline. This subdued demand aligns with reports of significant outflows from major Bitcoin ETFs, evidenced by BlackRock recording a substantial 32.5 million exit from its BTC offering. As institutional flows dry up, Bitcoin is struggling to hold key support levels, with many traders now questioning the likelihood of a year-end rally above the 100,000 milestone. Furthermore, Bitcoin dominance has slipped below the critical 60\%$ mark, often signaling a rotation of capital into altcoins. On the broader macroeconomic front, the U.S. economy delivered a slight positive surprise, though the underlying reality remains grim for consumers. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for December rose to 53.3, rebounding from November's low and beating expectations. However, this improvement was primarily concentrated among younger consumers, and the index director noted that the "overall tenor of views is broadly somber, as consumers continue to cite the burden of high prices". Inflation expectations did tick lower, with year-ahead expectations falling to 4.1\%. Meanwhile, the bond market experienced upward pressure on yields this week, with the 10-year Treasury rising to 4.14\%. This move came amid concerns over the potential Fed Chair nomination of Kevin Hassett, who is viewed as more 'dovish,' suggesting lingering uncertainty about future monetary policy independence ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. Stay sharp while technical patterns might show consolidation, the real story remains in these institutional flows and the stubborn fight against high prices impacting everyday spending. News Analysis Institutional Flows Signal Caution as BTC Dominance Dips Below Key Threshold Bitcoin's price action this week has been decidedly uninspired as the market navigates a complex confluence of fading institutional enthusiasm and persistent macroeconomic headwinds. The narrative that sustained the run toward the 100,000 mark is currently being challenged by significant capital rotation out of spot vehicles, painting a cautious picture for the year-end outlook. Institutional Retreat: ETF Outflows Dominate Headlines The primary drag on immediate price discovery appears to be the sustained retreat of institutional capital. On-chain metrics confirm that the critical 100-1,000 BTC wallet cohort, often reflective of ETF and corporate treasury accumulation, has seen buying pressure slow to a near halt, breaking a longer-term accumulation trendline. This on-chain observation is directly mirrored in the performance of the spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has been at the center of this outflow wave, recording a significant 32.5 million exit this week alone, according to recent reports. This contributes to a multi-week streak of redemptions that suggests a broader cooling of institutional appetite for direct BTC exposure as investors de-risk ahead of the new year. In total, spot Bitcoin ETFs hemorrhaged over 3.4 billion in net outflows over the past month, with BlackRock’s IBIT leading the exodus. Compounding this institutional caution, Bitcoin dominance has slipped below the critical 60\% mark, settling around 59.31\% as of December 6. Historically, a drop below this key level signals a rotation of capital away from the market leader and into altcoins in search of higher returns, which can often precede a delay or cancellation of a perceived "Santa rally." If this trend of capital outflow accelerates, pressure on Bitcoin’s price may intensify in the coming weeks. Macroeconomic Undercurrents: Sentiment vs. Yields On the macroeconomic stage, the data provided a mixed signal that failed to inspire broad confidence. Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment for December did tick up to 53.3, an improvement from November and a slight beat on expectations. However, this rebound was reportedly concentrated among younger consumers, and the overall mood remains "broadly somber" due to the persistent burden of high prices. A silver lining was the dip in year-ahead inflation expectations to 4.1\%, marking the fourth consecutive monthly decline. Despite signs of cooling inflation expectations, the bond market is reflecting uncertainty regarding the Federal Reserve’s path. The 10-year Treasury yield rose to 4.14\% this week, its largest weekly increase since April, driven by market concerns over future monetary policy. This move occurred amid ongoing speculation regarding the potential Fed Chair nomination of Kevin Hassett, a figure viewed as more dovish, which has introduced questions about future policy independence ahead of next week's FOMC meeting. While a 25bps rate cut next week is still widely priced in, the uncertainty around the subsequent policy path is causing longer-dated bonds to sell off. The rise in yields, which increases borrowing costs, generally acts as a headwind for risk assets like Bitcoin. Ecosystem Watch: Regulatory Noise and Global Factors While major network upgrades have remained quiet this week, attention has been drawn to regulatory whispers. Though no direct, sweeping regulatory action impacting BTC specifically was reported, the broader financial environment remains sensitive to political narratives. Reports of Trump hailing cooperation between Mexico and Canada suggest an external focus on trade, which can indirectly influence global capital flows and market stability key determinants for BTC's risk appetite. Furthermore, concerns over central bank independence and governance continue to surface, as evidenced by the market's reaction to the potential Kevin Hassett nomination, which has been linked to expectations of a more aggressive rate-cutting cycle. While a dovish shift *should* theoretically support risk assets, the uncertainty around Fed independence itself has led to upward pressure on Treasury yields, creating a conflicting signal for crypto traders. In Summary: Bitcoin is caught in a tug-of-war this Saturday. The significant outflows from major ETFs signal institutional profit-taking or risk aversion, reinforced by the drop in dominance. This bearish flow metric is currently outweighing the marginally positive read from consumer sentiment and the anticipation of a near-term Fed rate cut. The immediate market focus will now shift to interpreting the Federal Reserve’s guidance next week and whether sustained institutional demand can re-emerge to challenge the overhead resistance near 100,000. Outlook Conclusion: Caution Reigns as Institutional Tide Recedes The current sentiment surrounding Bitcoin is decidedly mixed, leaning towards cautious in the short term. The momentum that fueled recent price highs is clearly being tempered by a significant deceleration in institutional interest, evidenced by the sharp, sustained outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs totaling over $3.4 billion in the last month and the slowing accumulation trend among larger wallets. The breach of the critical 60% dominance threshold further suggests a potential capital rotation toward altcoins, which could place additional near-term pressure on BTC price action, dampening hopes for an immediate "Santa rally." Moving into the next 24-48 hours, investors must closely monitor two key indicators: the direction of daily spot ETF flows, particularly whether IBIT sees a reversal or continued significant redemptions, and the stability of the 59.31\% Bitcoin dominance level. A failure to reclaim the 60% mark, coupled with ongoing net outflows, would solidify the bearish short-term narrative. Conversely, a sharp reversal in ETF sentiment could quickly shift the market’s focus back to upside potential. *Disclaimer: This analysis is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Always conduct your own due diligence before making investment decisions.*