In the ever-turbulent crypto world, October 22, 2025, marked another chapter where Bitcoin stole the spotlight. With a 1.35% dip, BTC's price settled around $108,000 – a level where the daily candle opened at $109,200 in GMT timezone. This pullback was part of a wider market slide, as Ethereum tumbled 1.99% below $3,900. But is this just a fleeting correction, or the harbinger of a bigger storm?
Let's unpack the drivers behind this move. Trade tensions, especially Trump's proposed 155% tariffs on China, cast a long shadow. He's hinted that a meeting with Xi Jinping might not happen, yet expects a 'good deal' for China. This uncertainty has traders on edge, pressuring BTC as a risk asset. On a brighter note, the nearing US-India trade deal slashing tariffs to 15-16% could buoy emerging markets – and indirectly, crypto.
On the macro front, the Federal Reserve is front and center. Waller's October 21 speech stressed contractionary policies, but with key data stalled by a government shutdown, decisions are trickier. Some analysts see this as the 'final drop' before rate cuts, potentially propelling BTC to $120,000. The current fed funds rate sits at 4.11%, with markets pricing in a 25 bps trim this October. Rate reductions often favor risk assets like Bitcoin, shifting capital from bonds to crypto.
Shifting to positives, Bitwise research posits that a mere 3-4% rotation from gold (which dipped 5% lately) could double BTC's price. Having peaked at $110,000, this scenario feels plausible. Moreover, U.S. retail behemoth Bealls now accepting Bitcoin payments is a leap toward mainstream adoption. Amid the downturn, this news sparked optimism – a reminder that BTC is building real economic foundations beyond short-term swings.
That said, not all rosy. Veteran trader Peter Brandt warns BTC's chart echoes the 1970s soybean bubble. Arthur Hayes disagrees, but a 'Trump insider' whale has upped its short to 2,100 BTC ($227M), fueling sell pressure. Trading volume hit $270M in the last 24 hours, but sentiment gauges like min_faves suggest neutrality.
Technically, BTC tests $107,500 support. RSI at 45 (neutral), MACD flashing a mild bearish signal. A break below could target $105,000; holding above might rebound to $110,000 resistance. Recent spent BTC from 365-day to 2-year holders dropped 99.6% to 103 units – a sign sellers are tiring.
In Asia, Japan's September exports grew 4.2% despite U.S. tariff hits, bolstering global stability. The yen's drop post-Takaichi's PM election strengthened the dollar, but could drive Japanese capital to alternatives like crypto. BoE's Bailey rang alarm bells on private credit post-U.S. failures, highlighting systemic risks – underscoring crypto's edge over traditional finance.
Berry forecasts a crypto comeback led by BTC, ETH, and XRP, backed by data signals. If accurate, October could herald a rebound. Traders, heed news: The 5 steps for trading releases – prepare, analyze expectations, define entries/exits, execute disciplined, review – apply to crypto, tailored to BTC event calendars.
Finally, U.S. housing faces a 3-4M unit shortage, eroding affordability and curbing growth. Paired with rate cuts, this could tame inflation, reinforcing BTC as a hedge.