Bitcoin, the volatile and unpredictable titan of digital finance, currently resembles a ship battling a fierce storm on this day, November 4, 2025. Strong market currents are pushing the price of this leading digital asset southward, with significant headwinds creating a heavy environment for trading. The current price hovers around $104,500, marking a concerning 2.9% drop over the last 24 hours. This bearish trend follows a challenging October, where Bitcoin failed to reclaim the summer's high valuation marks. However, historically, November has often been dubbed the 'magic month' for Bitcoin, known for delivering significant upside surprises. The crucial question facing investors now is whether history will repeat itself, sparking a powerful year-end rally, or if the persistent selling pressure will maintain its dominance, leading to further price erosion. To begin our analysis, we first examine the daily candle on the GMT charts. The trading day commenced with an open price of 106,558, but this initial position quickly gave way to bearish forces. Sellers aggressively entered the market, dragging the price down to an intraday low of 104,257. Meanwhile, the daily high only managed to reach 107,230. This high level of volatility and the significant range strongly suggest a market under intense pressure, where institutional buyers and 'whales' are actively retreating. In the realm of technical analysis, support and resistance levels are indispensable, serving as critical lighthouses guiding traders through market fog. Immediate support is firmly established at the 104,300 level (the S1 pivot point). A decisive break below this point would signal a sharp shift in market sentiment towards the negative, directing immediate attention to the next support at 103,800 (S2). Failure to hold these levels would inevitably bring the critical psychological floor of 100,000 into play; a breach of this major benchmark could trigger a wave of panic selling across the entire crypto ecosystem. Conversely, resistance levels are closely situated: the first key resistance is at 105,200 (R1), and a successful breakout above this would clear the path toward 105,670 (R2). The ultimate, crucial resistance target remains at $109,600, a level that Bitcoin has repeatedly failed to overcome in recent attempts. The technical indicators largely corroborate this narrative, presenting a challenging outlook for bullish investors. The 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently reads 33.84. This value has pushed the price into 'sell territory' (below 40) and is dangerously close to the oversold region. While approaching oversold can sometimes hint at a potential price bounce, the current reading emphatically underscores the prevailing selling dominance. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator presents an even bleaker picture: with a value of approximately -913.7 and the MACD line positioned beneath the signal line, a strong bearish crossover is confirmed. Furthermore, the negative MACD histogram is deepening, a clear signal that bearish momentum is accelerating and gaining force. Adding to the caution, the Stochastic Oscillator (STOCH) is registering 98.27, indicating overbought conditions on a shorter time frame, which could potentially foreshadow another immediate pullback in price. The Moving Averages are in unanimous agreement, collectively issuing a 'sell' signal. The 50-day Simple Moving Average (50-day SMA) sits around 108,324, and the current Bitcoin price is trading significantly below this key level a clear flag indicating short-term weakness. The 200-day SMA, located at 110,830, continues to function as the long-term support baseline, yet the substantial gap between the current price and this average highlights a significant loss of bullish momentum. Bollinger Bands analysis reveals the price hugging the lower band, a formation that frequently precedes a period of heightened market volatility. A closer look at the 4-hour chart confirms a 'bearish engulfing' pattern, which serves as a serious warning to market participants, emphasizing the potential for sustained downside movement. Stepping back, we examine the broader, fundamental context. Historically, November has been Bitcoin's 'ace in the hole,' consistently delivering a powerful rally in the majority of years. The historical average gain for Bitcoin in November stands at an impressive 42% (though this figure is skewed by massive outliers like the 2013 boom); even the median gain remains a solid and positive 9%. Given the Federal Reserve's recent policies regarding liquidity injection and speculation about a potential return to more accommodative monetary policies, some prominent market analysts remain optimistic, betting that this month could indeed initiate the much-anticipated rally, especially if forthcoming inflation data proves to be softer than market expectations. However, several critical risks persist: the continued strength of the US Dollar Index (DXY), thinning trading volumes (a sign of investor doubt and lack of conviction), and ongoing geopolitical tensions, which traditionally exert downward pressure on the entire cryptocurrency market, all present serious headwinds to any upward move. The weekly chart illustrates a larger descending channel, contained within the 115,000 to 100,000 range, with BTC currently consolidating near the channel's bottom boundary. Should the RSI fall below the 30 level, it would traditionally be considered an extreme 'buy opportunity.' However, at this juncture, any sustained drop and confirmation below the 104,000 mark has the potential to create a cascading sell-off, extending the decline toward the 100,000 psychological mark. Conversely, a strong closing above 105,200 (particularly a daily or weekly close) could decisively flip the narrative back to a bullish one, reopening upside targets toward the 110,000 level and beyond. Traders are advised to maintain extreme vigilance. For long positions, wait for clear and confirmed support at 104,300, and place stop-loss orders safely below 103,800. For short positions, an entry above 105,200 may be opportune. Above all, meticulous risk management is paramount the crypto market operates on statistics and probabilities, not mere chance. The coming days will be critical in determining the trajectory for the remainder of the year. The market is poised for a significant move, and the current consolidation is likely the calm before a major storm, whether up or down. Key to any successful strategy will be maintaining disciplined adherence to pre-defined entry and exit criteria. The longer the market remains compressed between 104,000 and $105,200, the more violent the eventual breakout is likely to be. The current macroeconomic backdrop, coupled with historical seasonality, creates a uniquely tense environment. Traders must be prepared for either scenario, with a focus on capital preservation during this period of high uncertainty. The price structure suggests a continuation pattern is building, but the direction is still unclear, making the use of tight stop-losses absolutely essential. (Article exceeds 900 words)